When you are trying to analyze current events, particularly if you want to forecast the trajectory of events and policy; you develop a sort of paradigm that explains power relationships. Understanding these dynamics can allow you to predict with some accuracy the way things will go. You consider history, geostrategic interests, economic factors, and so on, to deduce agendas and how those will be pursued. But you also have to be aware when circumstances change or when new dynamics come into play, because these may change the applicability of your framework.
It is a common mistake, in my view, to insist on the permanence of a particular framework for analysis. When you do this, your analyses and your predictions will inevitably be wrong.
The past 20 years have seen a number of important changes in power dynamics, both in the US and globally; and a great deal of these have occurred in just the past 4 or 5 years. Frameworks need to be updated across the board in order to grasp what is going on, and what can be expected in the near future.