What occurred in Egypt in July 2013 was a tremendous crime. But the military coup was simply one particularly heinous event in what can only be described as a decades-long crime spree. The toppling of the democratic process (or the appearance of a democratic process) was followed by another, and even more dreadful anti-democratic event three years later when Egypt’s economic sovereignty was unconditionally surrendered to the International Monetary Fund.
From October 2013 until November 11, 2016, I dedicated a significant portion of my time and energy to trying to help Egypt avoid either its subjugation by the IMF and foreign investors or the disturbing prospect of a violent civil war. I wrote innumerable posts and articles warning against both potential outcomes and offering suggestions for strategies and tactics that might help Egyptian revolutionaries confront the domination of their country by foreign economic powers without adopting the disastrous approach of armed insurgency.
I did not believe, and still do not believe, that there is a valid religious argument for rebellion against the Sisi government; but I felt that the conflict was between the people of Egypt and a form of foreign economic imperialism, and that resistance to this was justified both religiously and rationally.
It was not difficult to predict in 2013 what would happen in Egypt over the next few years in the absence of effective resistance, simply because the pattern has been so reliably played out time and again in country after country; as indeed, it has now played out in Egypt..
Resistance, however, was not effective, and in my opinion, opposition Islamic parties were insincere towards the Egyptian people, almost entirely ignoring the economic dynamics of the situation, and favouring instead empty religious demagoguery, unrealistic and irresponsible calls for war, and short-sighted, opportunistic ambitions for power and position.
I felt that the situation was urgent because if the people were unable to derail the IMF loan agreement, with all its concomitant conditions, what Egyptians would have to do to change the situation for the better after the loan was approved would be infinitely more difficult than simply scuttling the agreement. I believe this was an accurate assessment, and yes, change in Egypt today is going to be incomparably harder than it would have been prior to November 2016.
If you consider yourself an Islamist revolutionary in Egypt, know that your struggle is going to be generational. I advise you to study economics, study business, study finance; study grassroots movements in Central and South America during the 1970s and 80s, and the history of the labor movement; and do not waste your time with manuals on guerrilla war or delusional Jihadist literature. Abandon the Utopian elements of Islamist ideology, shun extremism, allow a plurality of interpretations of the Shari’ah, and return to the basics of building community solidarity, development of policy alternatives, and objective, non-ideological analysis of the power structure.