One of the points that is worth thinking about, particularly in terms of Syria, with regard to Western geopolitical strategy in the region is the predictable consequences stemming from the flow of refugees. Obviously a lot of people identify the undermining of Iran as an objective of the West (and Saudi Arabia) in their position in the Syrian conflict, but I think a more important long-term interest of the West is the destabilization of Turkey. It is fairly well known that flooding a country with refugees is a pretty reliable method of creating instability in that country…not necessarily immediate, but deep.
“…refugee flows may directly affect the security and stability of the host country by contributing to organized armed conflict on the host’s territory….refugee inflows from neighboring states significantly increase the risk of civil war. Along with the refugees themselves, foreign fighters, arms, and ideologies that contribute to violence may also stream across the border. ‘Refugee warrior’ communities can expand rebel networks to encompass the host state when militants establish bases on external territory and when they form social ties with domestic opposition groups of a similar ethnic or political orientation”
This is from a 2007 paper by Professor Idean Salehyan, and frankly, this is exactly what is happening in Turkey today. The consequences of this may take time to develop, but they cannot be particularly good, especially given the very long history of animosity, rivalry, and suspicion between Turks and Arabs. It would not take much to provoke the more negative aspects of Turkish nationalism, which is incredibly strong, if the population feels, or is made to feel, that their identity or sovereignty is being challenged in any way by the influx of possibly radicalized Arab refugees. And any such potential conflict could rapidly unravel the nascent influence of Turkey in the Muslim world. Remember, it was not long ago at all that Turkey was referred to in the Egyptian media as part of an “Axis of Evil”, together with the US and Israel. Erdogan has changed that, but problems may develop stemming from the Syrian war which could pressure him to take steps to protect his credibility at home, while making him highly unpopular in the Arab world, if , that is, the predictable consequences of the refugee crisis do in fact occur.