If the Islamists follow the patterns of the Chileans, Indonesians, Hatians and others who suffered under similar repressive coups, it will mean basically varying degrees of strife and sporadic violence for decades to come. This strife will be useful to the regime for the imposition of greater security restrictions and further counter-democratic measures under the rationale of “state emergency”. And the neoliberal program will continue to accelerate.
If the Islamists learn the lessons from the experiences of other oppressed peoples, rather than merely repeat those experiences, and develop new opposition strategies in pursuit of democratization, this pattern can be broken. But this will be a long term process.
I am afraid that the opposition clings to the hope that they can topple the regime in a sudden dramatic manner, reminiscent of the toppling of Mubarak. Although everyone realizes at this point that the toppling of Mubarak did not fundamentally change the power structure, it is an appealing fiction that the daring overthrow of an individual dictator is the same thing as liberation from tyranny.
This hope will prevent the opposition from undertaking far-sighted strategies of organizing and education. By hoping for an immediate solution they will ultimately prolong the problem, and perhaps only one or two generations later, the people will undertake the sorts of strategies that should be adopted today, but which the parties today feel will take too long.