To be published in Arabic for Arabi21 :
China did not suddenly discover that they have a significant Muslim community in the Xinjiang province, and presumably they did not suddenly start to hate them because they are Muslims. They have always been there, and hatred for Islam is certainly not a new development in China either. So, what is the explanation behind the new waves of oppression against the Uighur Muslims? Why, for instance, is the same oppression not being imposed against Muslims in other parts of China, if the sole reason for it is hatred of Islam?
There are a few points to consider. First: geography.
The ‘Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region’ is territorially the largest administrative unit of China. It spans around one sixth of the country’s total area, and borders eight different countries (Afghanistan, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan). Xinjiang is China’s gateway to Central Asia.
Second: China’s concept of economic security.
As China’s economy has grown, its appetite for raw materials and resources has also grown, particularly in the areas of energy; and, of course, China needs to maintain access to trade routes. The Xinjiang province, with its rich mineral resources, and geostrategic position, is key to both of these priorities. Xinjiang is already the biggest natural gas producer in China and the third largest oil producing region. Xinjiang also covers the most vital transit routes for oil and gas, as well as other goods and materials in and out of China. In brief, control of Xinjiang is essential to China’s economic security.
Now, an interesting and seemingly contradictory element of China’s policy towards Xinjiang is the fact that, along with the intensifying repression of religious identity there is also accelerating investment.
This may seem like a paradox. It isn’t.
The rest of China owes a great deal of its economic growth to Xinjiang; energy, textiles, foreign trade, all relies on the province. One of the poorest regions in China, by all rights, it should be one of the richest. Chinese capitalists see great opportunities in Xinjiang, but these opportunities must not be allowed to benefit the population. Xinjiang, you see, remembers being, and aspires to be, the East Turkistan Republic; an independent country with a Muslim identity.
Obviously, an independent Xinjiang would utterly undermine China’s economic security. So the central government in Beijing must counter-balance investment and development in Xinjiang with attempts to keep the population in poverty and to crush the Islamic revival which form the basis for the aspirations of independence.
In my opinion, this approach will only intensify the drive for separation from China, but it will depend on how the liberation struggle is pursued. If the Uighur liberation struggle takes the familiar route of battling state security and military services, or engages in acts of terrorism that victimize innocent civilians of Xinjiang, then, I would predict that the Chinese owners of capital will succeed.
If the Uighurs, however, comprehend the real motives behind the repression, and develop a strategy of system disruption targeting the interests of investors, they may create leverage by which they can achieve, if not complete secession from China, at least greater economic sovereignty for Xinjiang; which would be a crucial platform from which to eventually launch a victorious struggle for independence.
Without understanding why repression is happening, there is no effective way to oppose it.