Some weeks ago, I wrote that Russia’s military intervention in Syria would likely strengthen Turkey and the AKP. I believe the downing of the Russian warplane both indicates that this is already occurring and that the action itself will contribute to this strengthening.
Putin’s airstrikes have nothing to do with trying to achieve a military victory, they are about ensuring that Russia will have influential participation in any eventual political settlement. The US and Europe would prefer Russia to be isolated, and that isolation cannot be achieved without Turkey.
Isolating Russia will inevitably mean an expansion of Turkey’s influence in the region. The West does not particularly want this to happen, indeed, they fear it; but it is an unavoidable necessity at the moment.
I believe that Russia will have to be restrained in their response to the warplane incident, with probably only symbolic gestures of hostility, but ultimately, they will have to accept the reality of Turkey’s advantage.