There are basically two ways to determine whether or not someone offers accurate analysis, and only one of those ways is reliable.
The first way is to evaluate his logic; if it seems sound, and he is not relying on emotion, false hopes, conspiratorial theories, or exaggeration; you may determine that his analysis is good. However, this is unreliable, because it is subjective. You may not be able to evaluate the soundness of his logic, or differentiate what is rationally possible from what your own feelings, hopes, fears, or over-reactions may make you believe.
The other way to determine the general accuracy of someone’s analysis, and this is the reliable method, is to review what they have said in the past and compare it with what subsequently actually happened.
I invite all the respected friends and followers of this page to browse through the archives of my posts to review the extent to which my own analysis has proved accurate or otherwise.
I believe, and I hope, that the accuracy of what I have written in the past may increase your consideration for what I write in the future, if Allah Allows me.
I do not write ideas or analysis based upon what I hope or what I like or what I want; indeed, most of the time, I dearly hope I am wrong; but I write is based, as much as possible, on objective evaluation and research, geopolitical and economic realities, historical patterns, and, of course, the overriding framework of the Qur’an and Sunnah. We ask Allah for Guidance.