Erdogan’s economic advisors are surely cringing now. They have always bristled whenever the government takes actions that the international community depicts as authoritarian, because it makes investors nervous. That is informative. Typically foreign investors adore authoritarian regimes; they are stable, reliable, and have the power and control to impose the types of policies business demands without any serious public opposition. That’s why they like Sisi. But whenever they start to suspect Erdogan is becoming authoritarian, their confidence shakes. So what is the difference? Well, their adoration of dictators should include a more precise qualifying adjective: they adore subordinate dictators. Again, like Sisi.
While I do not believe it is true that Erdogan is becoming authoritarian, nor does he have that inclination; the point is that investors do not want him to be; and they don’t want him to be because they do not trust that he will be subordinate. Since Turkey paid off its debt to the IMF, Erdogan has increasingly expressed his disillusionment with neoliberalism and its institutions. The last thing the global owners of capital want is an anti-neoliberal dictator…anywhere, but certainly not in Turkey.
Erdogan’s economic rhetoric in recent years has been more and more populist, which is another way of saying “democratic”, and that is the worst kind of democracy from the vantage point of global elites. The more democratic Erdogan becomes, the more he will be portrayed as an authoritarian, as a radical Islamist, as a despot. This has nothing whatsoever to do with the reality of freedom and democracy in Turkey, and everything to do with defiance of the demands of international capital. The more Erdogan prioritizes the interest and needs of the Turkish people over the greed of foreign investors, the more he will be depicted as a mad tyrant.