…I have not discussed Europe, however, and there are two reasons for that; European power is subordinate in the hierarchy of the global order, and Europe is in decline. This does not mean that Europe is, or will be, insignificant, of course, but I think that, to a great extent, Europe as an entity will not exist by the later decades of the next 100 years. It almost doesn’t exist now; there is tremendous tension between Northern and Southern Europe, between the central states and the periphery; and this is likely to lead to conflict in the future, and the eventual disbanding of the European Union.
One of, if not the most important aspects of Europe in the international power structure is its role in NATO; and this will continue to be the case, but that does not require a more general cohesion between European states.
NATO represents a mechanism for the US to organize the activities and deployments of Europe’s armed forces for the pursuit of American power interests. Therefore, no matter how much Europe may fracture, the commitment of each state to the NATO alliance will remain in force.
The powerful states in Europe, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France, already dominate the EU politically and economically, and largely dictate EU policy to weaker members; that is not a recipe for sustainable unity.
This year the UK voted to secede from the EU, which will inevitably put Britain squarely under the American sphere of influence, and increase the relative power of Germany in Europe, as well as increasing Germany’s burden of responsibility, particularly financially, for sustaining the European project.
Europe’s indigenous workforce is aging, and the birthrates are not adequate to replenish it. This will inevitably impact European industrial productivity over the course of the next several decades. The only way for Europe to maintain any degree of economic growth will be immigration, and this will permanently alter the cultural and political character of the continent; it will also cause internal strife as nationalistic and xenophobic elements gain popularity. The rise of these types of political sentiments can only undermine the EU as a unified entity. As domestic Right-Wing parties become louder, their concerns will present a serious challenge to the ability of the European Parliament to compel member states to adhere to a comprehensive EU policy, which by definition, subordinates the demands of individual nations. All of these factors, in my opinion, put the EU on an irreversible trajectory towards disintegration.
(Excerpted from the upcoming book “1,200 Crescent Moons”)
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